NCAA.com Week 3: Tennessee and TCU Displace Penn State – Signal or Early-Season Noise?

Numbers don't lie, but those who read them might. On September 21, Penn State – ranked No. 9 – lost 3-1 to Tennessee at home. Immediately, they were pushed out of NCAA.com's Power 10. Tennessee, ranked No. 16, was described in two words: resume-building. TCU also entered the top 10 for the first time. Everything happened so fast that Penn State fans probably haven't had time to mourn. But let's pause for a beat. The NCAA.com Power 10 is an editorial ranking, personally operated by analyst Michella Chester. It's not the AVCA Coaches Poll, nor is it a tool used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Penn State leaving the Power 10 this week simply means: one analyst believes that, at this moment, there are 10 teams more deserving than them. That's a judgment, not a verdict. What's more telling is how Penn State itself framed the loss. Their website pinned the defeat on unforced errors. They didn't specify where the errors came from: serving, attacking, or passing. The number of errors committed was also not disclosed. In a match where setter Gabrielle Nichols recorded her third double-double of the season (38 assists and 12 digs), and Ava Falduto led the team with 15 digs, losing 1-3 to a No. 16 team points to an execution-discipline problem rather than a tactical collapse. Based on my experience following NCAA matches, I see a blind spot: when a volleyball team loses while seemingly in control like that, unforced errors usually concentrate in two moments – serving in decisive sets and wing attacking when the score is tight. Penn State seems to have fallen into both. The setter had to dig 12 times, meaning their block and back row let too many balls fall toward the setter, forcing her to defend like a libero. When a setter has the second-highest dig total on the team, that's a signal of an unstable reception system, not the mark of an all-around star. This leads to a bigger question: Is Tennessee truly elite, or did they merely exploit an opponent's bad afternoon? The new ranking completely lacks data on Tennessee's attack efficiency, perfect-pass rate, and block success. There are no detailed set scores, so no one knows whether Penn State's loss was a dramatic 23-25 affair or a one-sided 15-25. If it was 23-25, Tennessee was only slightly luckier. If it was 15-25, the story changes. The original article doesn't mention it at all. They laughed at me before the Japan-Belgium match. After it ended, they went looking for that article. I won't reuse that formula to predict anything risky here, but I'm confident enough to say: don't rush to crown Tennessee as 'top tier' after just one win. NCAA history shows that early-season signature wins often fade quickly once conference play begins. Conversely, don't rush to bury Penn State. They're still a blue-blood program, having just lost their first match against a ranked team this season. One data point cannot define a season. What's interesting is that TCU also entered the Power 10 the same week. If only Tennessee had risen, you could call it an isolated shock. But two teams climbing into the rankings simultaneously – while other teams' movement is mentioned but not enumerated – shows the entire landscape is shaking, not just one piece. This is a structural feature of the non-conference period: strong teams haven't faced each other, résumés are thin, so one big win can push a team up several spots, and one loss can make a team disappear from the radar. Weeks 4 and 5 will reveal the truth. If Tennessee and TCU hold steady, that's a real signal. If they slide, it was all noise. An empty stadium in 2026 taught me: sports aren't on the court; they're in the hearts of the viewers. This week, the hearts of American college volleyball fans are racing over an editorial ranking. Let their hearts race, but keep a cool head. Because when conference play knocks on the door, everything will be measured by a different yardstick – the RPI and the selection committee – where the Power 10 has no say. From the 400m starting line to the defender's box, rhythm is still one language. A volleyball team losing due to unforced errors is like a 400m runner falling apart in the final strides 50 meters from the finish. The problem isn't strength – it's rhythm and discipline. Penn State has plenty of strength. The only open question: can they find their rhythm again before conference play begins? I want to see whether Tennessee is a talented 400m runner, or just someone who won a race where the opponent shot themselves in the foot. Wait until the sets are done before passing judgment.